REVIEWING SPACE SUSTAINABILITY PRINCIPLES - TOWARDS NORMS FOR SUSTAINED SPACE ECONOMY GROWTH

75th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Milan, Italy, 14-18 October 2024. Copyright ©2024 by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF). All rights reserved. IAC-24,E9,3,7,x90380 Page 1 of 10 IAC-24,E9,3,7,x90380

By: Miki Sode*, Ian Christensen**, Nishan Degnarain***

*Otento LLC

**Secure World Foundation & Corresponding Author

***The Exponential Academy

Abstract

Growing a space economy - and returns from it - depends on the stability of the space environment. Responsible behavior in the space economy can safeguard the use of space for future generations in a sustainable way, similar to how the sustainability movement has expanded in definition and operation on Earth to cover subsequent generations. Compared to other domains, the actions of one actor can significantly impact the ability of others to safely operate due to the shared operating environment and the physical properties of the space domain. As the space economy expands, current operating norms, regulations and governance principles must be renovated and co-developed further for anticipated future. Numerous voluntary principles for sustainable operations in space have been proposed in recent years without much coordination between initiatives. This paper aims to identify common key principles and gaps in order to lay a foundation for developing norms and rules that support economic growth of the space economy. We reviewed 12 of the most prominent, private sector oriented space sustainabilityrelated initiatives such as Space Safety Coalition, AstraCarta. We mapped each initiative along two axes: the "Exploitation vs. Conservation", and the "Principles vs. Guidelines". These axes are identified to contextualize and compare the initiatives according to their overall perspective on the development of the space domain. We identified 10 common principles, finding that these initiatives naturally focus around behavioral norms for operations of large satellite constellations, such as space traffic coordination, operator information sharing, and interoperability. We then evaluated the alignment of these principles with actual incidents, emerging trends in space activities, as well as future phases of the space economic development defined by anticipated major step-changes in technology and/or operational concepts. This paper's analysis aims to catalyze discussion of laying a foundation for co-creating rules and norms in support of sustainable and ethical space economy development.

Keywords: space sustainability, norms, investment, principles

Introduction

As the space economy expands, practices for sustainability and responsible operations will be necessary for ensuring growth (e.g., to reduce space debris or govern communication bandwidth). However, most of the key governance principles that inform space regulation were defined in an era where space was dominated by government operators. The next era of space activities is likely to be dominated by either the private sector or at the very least, public-private partnerships. This implies very different operating norms, especially as the nature of the private sector varies around the world. Many other industries have transitioned from government dominated to private sector dominated, and now use a variety of new levers. These include ESG indicators (Environmental, Social and Governance metrics). Significant industry efforts have been made in recent years to develop voluntary principles for sustainable operations in space. However various initiatives have developed somewhat independent of each other, and little work has been done to compare for areas of consensus and of gaps. A key challenge is in establishing consensus on guiding principles that people can abide by regardless of diverse perspectives that arose from cultural norms and intentions. Comparative analysis of the current set of principles like this identifies the divergence and commonality thereby leads to opportunities and challenges in establishing norms, designing standards and regulations towards the ultimate goal of setting up for a robust, sustained and vibrant space economy for more people to benefit from for many years to come. This paper presents an initial review of those principles, and asks whether their core elements form the basis for a set of sustainability principles in the space industry.

The Need for Principles to Guide Responsible Activity in Space

Space is changing from a government driven domain to a multi-user domain increasingly characterized by private sector actors. There are currently more than 10,500 active satellites on orbit [1]. More than half of those are currently operated by a single commercial operator - SpaceX’s Starlink, which has launched more than 6,300 satellites into orbit between February 2018 and September 2024 [2]. But most of the key governance principles that inform space activities were defined based on an era where space was dominated by government operators, for military and civil space activities. A main concern of the treaty process at that time was preventing conflict in a cold war context. Academic, private and other non-governmental government use of space was anticipated but not detailed. A key aspect of space sustainability is the reality that the actions of one actor in the space domain can significantly impact the ability of others to safely operate. The consequences of a bad actor, or even an unintentional accident can be more severe in space. Therefore it is more important for every actor to exercise good practices and honor/adhere to agreed upon principles for everybody’s benefit. Growing a space economy - and returns from it - depends on the stability of the space environment. There has been a rapid increase in investment from private sources into the space sector. It is difficult to truly estimate the size of the space economy, however a commonly cited analyst estimate places the total size of the space economy at $570B in 2023 [3]. This number is expected to continue to grow, approaching $1 trillion by 2040 [4]. In recent years, significant efforts have been made by a number of industry, government, and civil-society groups to develop and promulgate voluntary guidelines, principles, and practices for space sustainability and/or space operations. These initiatives have resulted in a collective set of recommendations which may begin to define the current basis for implementable norms of responsible behaviour for private sector space activities. This paper presents an initial review of those principles, seeking to identify key common core principles represented across the various initiatives. The documents and initiatives reviewed in this analysis are all voluntary, non-binding documents focused on private sector actors. Standards and regulatory measures were not considered in scope for this analysis. Nor were documents or initiatives that focus solely on governmental activities (e.g. the Artemis Accords or the UN COPUOS Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Space Activities) directly considered.

Examples of What We Can Learn from Other Domains

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